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What I love about spring carnival time in Australia are thefull race cards packed with stakes action. Last week it was Moonee Valley withthe G1 Cox Plate. Tonight beginning at 8:20 p.m. Eastern in the U.S. (Saturdayin Australia), it’s Flemington that hosts nine group events including four G1s.Right now, the track is rated a “Dead 4” so let’s take a look at the maincontenders with that in mind—and join the usual crowd later tonight on Twitter(@FilliesFirst):
G3 Carbine Stakes—Race 1The topweight favorite is Darley’s regally-bred Galah (Redoute’s Choice) whose DistortedHumor dam Rinky Dink captured the G1 Australasian Oaks. He’s already a listedwinner, and given his breeding stretching out to a mile for the first timeshould not be an issue. The third and fourth-place finishers from his last racereturn here as well, with HighlyRecommended enjoying a better weight advantage, dropping two pounds.It may not be quite enough, but this Fastnet Rock colt comes from a family ofwinners, including half-sisters G1 Emirates victress Sky Cuddle and G3Tattersalls Cup winner Sky Love, as well as G2 runner-up full-brother Undeniably.Sentimentally, I’ll be rooting for another Redoute’s Choice colt, Cross of Gold; his second dam is adaughter of Foolish Pleasure, plus he is also a half-brother to champion Hasna,2003 winner of Australia’s 2-year-old Triple Crown. The only other seriouscontender is the field is Meethaqwho actually won at this distance last out—he’s a half-brother to the multipleG1 winner Mnemosyne.UPDATE: Long stretch run and 1-2 favorite Galah needed everyinch of it, just nipping 16-1 Highly Recommended at the wire. 18-1 SaintEtienne was also up very close for third.
G3 Lexux Stakes—Race 2Big field, with topweight Tullamore returning a mere week after his runner-up finish todefending Melbourne Cup winner Americain in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup [oops, he’snow scratched]. Green Moon finishedjust ahead of him in the G1 Caulfield Cup, so it should be an interestingrematch. I’m still on board with Anudjawunwho finished fourth behind Americain and Tullamore last week—now he enjoys adrop in weight, from 121 to 118, which may not sound like much, but withTullamore still toting 126, and Green Moon going up from 117 to 123, it mayjust make the difference. He’s also placed in the top three (though never won)all three times he’s raced on this track. The mare Midnight Martini drew a horrible barrier position (14), but thegranddaughter of G1 New Zealand Oaks winner Sawatdee has won over this track,ran very sharp fourth ahead of Anudjawun in the G2 Herbert Power before runningthird most recently in the G3 David Jones Cup. A win here guarantees her astart in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.UPDATE: After leading early, Green Moon totally fell apart,and 7-1 Niwot quickly took advantage, pulling away from the field. 11-1 Macedoniansecond, and 18-1 Anudjawun third. At 50-1, Raffaello fleshed out a massive superfecta.
G2 Wakeful Stakes—Race 3Undefeated AtlanticJewel won the G1 Thousand Guineas with incredible ease last out, and hasalready won carrying 128 lbs. like she does here; the only query is the9-furlong distance, but being out a Zabeel mare hints it shouldn’t be aproblem. Four fillies enter off the same listed race going this distance, withthe best of them the winner Gliding.Her half-brother is 5-time G1 winner Eremain, and with master Bart Cummings,you can believe she’ll be primed for this race. Sure to be running late is NewZealand-bred Dowager Queen, recentlyG1-placed in the Flight Stakes; she must be an iron horse, having already run15 times since last December 28 (but did enjoy a nearly 3-month break). For alongshot chance, I like Gioe in thetop-four after her bad-luck efforts most recently; her G1 runner-up dam MagicalMiss also won the G2 Memsie. Hands-down, the Cinderella story here would be awin or placing by yet-unplaced La DolceDiva, daughter of 3-time Melbourne Cup victress Makybe Diva.UPDATE: Wow, Atlantic Jewel is a serious filly! Easy win at2-5, with 35-1 Rahveel second, 5-1 Dowager Queen third and 7-1 Gliding fourth.
G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes—Race 4Unusual for American fans to witness, Flemington’s sprintraces are run over a straight track—and that is something even Australianhorses sometimes find hard to do well. Sepoyshouldn’t have a problem here, given that he’s already won twice over thistrack—not to mention captured nine of his 10 lifetime starts thus far. It’shard to look beyond him, but any rain affecting the track favors Hot Snitzel and good performancesearlier in the card by Galah and/or Highly Recommended would only lead furthercredence to the abilities of Masthead.For longer shots, consider UniqueQuality who ran a very game third to Sepoy over this track last out, andthe lightly-raced Zamorar who reallymoves up in class for this one (he’s related to Foolish Pleasure through hisdamsire Scenic).
UPDATE: Sepoy just lasted over Foxwedge, with 70-1 SatinShoes just ahead of 45-1 Zamorar.
G1 Mackinnon Stakes—Race 5A number of likely Melbourne Cup runners in here, includingrecent G1 Caulfield Cup winning mare SouthernSpeed. The other mare Lights ofHeaven has yet to live up to her huge promise this campaign, but a goodbarrier position and the jockey-trainer combination of Luke Nolen-Peter Moodycould get it done here—top fours at the very least. Off his third-place finishbehind Pinker Pinker in the G1 Cox Plate last week, Rekindled Interest is a big chance. 7-year-old Wall Street has been running well of late—could the old boy pop abig one here? Umm, not if the reports of mild colic this week are true, I’mafraid. Not beyond the realm of possibility. Irish-bred Glass Harmonium disappointed in the Cox Plate, but the track mayhave been his downfall—he finished a narrow second to December Draw in the G1Turnbull recently at Flemington. Even though he’s a last-out G1 winner, The Verminator gets a HUGE weight jump,from 115 to 130 pounds—I can’t imagine him in the top four.
UPDATE: Glass Harmonium won, with 18-1 Mourayan second and post-timefavorite Rekindled Interest third. Superfecta fleshed out with 5-1 mare SouthernSpeed.
G1 AAMI Victoria Derby—Race 6All of the money is on Manawanui,and rightly so—however, I’m sticking with Collaras a possible upset threat. I hated the way he was taken to the lead early atMoonee Valley, but his regular jockey Nick Hall is back aboard, so I expect amore even performance out of him here. Niagaraappears nicely-bred for this distance (by Encosta De Lago, out of a FusaichiPegasus mare), but his far-outside 18 barrier post sucks. Costly Commitment finished just behind Niagara last out, and hasdemonstrated improvement with each start; by Encosta De Lago out of anOctagonal mare, he should have no problem with the distance (good barrier posttoo!). Darley sends out listed Geelong Classic winner Induna whose full-sister Camarilla won the G1 Sires’ ProduceStakes; among her many nice performances, their dam Camarena swept both the G1Queensland Derby (2400m) and G2 Queensland Guineas (1600m) in 1999. The softerthe going, the better Induna’s chances. Last out G3 winner Sabrage breaks from a difficult post (16) and I’m concerned abouthis distance limitations, being by sprinter Charge Forward; his dam Galroof ransecond in both the G1 Doomben Cup (2200m) and G1 Queensland Derby (2400m), so Isuppose it’s possible, but his half-brother Pinnacles topped out at one mile,placing third in the G1 Doncaster (1600m). There’s definitely quality there,though. UPDATE: Extremely roughly run race…Sangster narrowly winsover Induna, with Sabrage up for third. Longshot Zabeelionaire (35-1) fleshedout superfecta. Manawanui nowhere near the top finishers.
G1 Myer Classic—Race 7Wow! Huge field of quality filly and mare milers here,beginning with 5-time G1 winner and top weight More Joyous; she won the G2 Tristarc last out, but niggling concernover recent comments by jock Nash Rawiller that she’s not the same powerhouse asshe once was. She may be favored, but there are plenty of others here ofinterest, including 3-year-old G1-placed Mosheenwho's getting a huge weight advantage over the older mares here, carrying only108 pounds (17-18 lbs. less than every other entry). Personally, I'm thrilled(but surprised) to see the return of Banchee,a multiple G1 winner in New Zealand last year who last I heard was off to thebreeding shed. Guess that didn’t happen, as she’s back here in a very toughspot (and bad barrier). At a price, Dysphoniacould surprise, as she’s been progressing nicely this campaign, as has Response who also loves this track. I’ma huge fan of Sacred Choice, but notsure the 6-year-old isn’t a tad disappointing this spring.UPDATE: Hurtle Myrtle wins, with Sacred Choice second, andDysphonia a fast-closing third. More Joyous, Banchee both disappointing.
G2 Salinger Stakes—Race 8Another straight track sprint, Stirling Grove could pull a shocker after his last out third-placeperformance behind Black Caviar and Karuta Queen; he’s 2 for 2 over this track,and this being his third start of the spring could be a revelation. Given hercurrent form vs. Cox Plate winner Pinker Pinker, not to mention Sepoy and Curtana (who’s also in here), Mid Summer Music looks extremely goodfor a top two finish at least, as does SisterMadly. Rarefied also appears astrong top 4 chance. Loving the fillies and mares overall!
G3 Tab.Com.Au (Chatham) Stakes—Race 9Turning back to 7-furlongs looks just the thing Toorak Toff needs, though he’s yet toplace in two attempts over the Flemington straight track. Thankgodyou'rehere should likewise enjoy the cut back in distance(not to mention class). Doubtful Jackloves the track, but was so thoroughly thrashed by Black Caviar last week, it’shard to visualize a miraculous return-to-form (it’s been awhile for this boy). Onthe other hand, Launay is undefeatedin three starts at Flemington, and appears a real top four chance. Sentimentally,I’m on board Torio’s Quest, adamside descendent of Foolish Pleasure—a devastating G2 winner back in June, hopefully he’s back on track.
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