Ill-Conceived Derby Dreams

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With less than two weeks remaining, exactly who to bet on Kentucky Derby dayis becoming, at least to my thinking, even more confusing as so many morepotential entrants this year actually possess the kind of stamina breeding youwant to see in a Derby candidate. Not among them, however, is Trinniberg whose connections have mostunwisely chosen to pursue their Derby dreams on the back of a horse so uniquelyunqualified for the distance.  Consider,in seven lifetime starts, this son of Teuflesberghas never run around two turns. He’s never run beyond seven furlongs. His gutsybut incredibly hard-raced (and at times ill-placed) sire at least had somefoundation before attempting the Derby, having won the 1-mile Southwest (over Hard Spun, no less) before finishing thirdto Curlin in the 8.5 furlong G3Rebel Stakes and then a close-up fourth in the 9-furlong G1 Blue Grass. Aftercontesting the Derby early, Teuflesberg’sbreeding kicked in, and he faded to finish 17th out of 20 entrants. Trinniberg’s damline doesn’t possess alick of stamina. That’s no exaggeration, either. That owner ShivanandaParbhoo basedhis decision to enter Trinnibergon the defection of Secret Circle isbeyond naïve; does he really think he can steal the race on the front endagainst such seasoned horses? I could see taking a chance with a weaker fieldof candidates, but that’s not the case. This may ultimately be one of the moretalented Derby fields in recent years, so what a shame it is to potentiallyruin a nice sprinter like Trinnibergon an ill-conceived flight of fancy. Still, it’s his horse to do what he willso good luck, Mr. Parbhoo. You’ll need it.

Again this year I’ll be contributing “Going the DerbyDistance 2012” to Hello Race Fans!, afeature that over the past two years has been incredibly accurate. In 2010, I nailedthe exacta with Super Saver and Ice Box; ditto in2011 with Animal Kingdom and Nehro among the top stamina-bred horses.As previously noted, it’s going to be a whole lot more difficult this yearfinding contenders based solely on that criterion, as both top and bottombreeding for many looks stamina-rich. We’ll see how significant a role workouts,jockeys, post positions, and track conditions play, but more than at any timein recent years I’m hopeful we may see an extremely competitive Triple Crownseries.