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After what was in many ways an unsatisfying year forAmerican horse racing, I find myself strangely ambivalent about tonight’sEclipse Awards show—but will certainly watch them online thanks to the DailyRacing Form beginning at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Unlike the previous two years,there’s not the passion…nay, rabid fervor…behindwho is named Horse of the Year, which definitely takes a little fun out of thewhole event. That said, I’d be a little disappointed if Havre de Grace doesn’t win, making it three consecutive years whenthe best horse in America is of the feminine persuasion. Her competition (Caleb's Posse and Acclamation) aren't without fault, so it's a relatively safe bet that she will win. Here are some finalthoughts and predictions on what we’ll see tonight:
2-year-old Male:Not surprisingly, the first third finishers in the Breeders’Cup Juvenile (Creative Cause, Union Rags, and Hansen) are the finalists, andhistory suggests Hansen will win. Doesthat mean he, or either of the other two for that matter, will win the KentuckyDerby? Doubtful. Although it seems trainer Dale Romans’ plans are for a lightprep—the 9-furlong G3 Palm Beach on turf and the 9-furlong G1 Blue Grass onPolytrack—Dullahan is my early Derbypick. To my eyes, this half-brother to Mine That Bird was closing best in theBC Juvenile, and has already proven he’s a distance runner.
2-year-old Female:Because we are a country unnaturally preoccupied with dirtracing, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Miss Aurelia will win this award over her BC runner-up GraceHall, but for my money Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Stephanie’s Kitten will be the one towatch this year—her planned 2012 debut is in the Florida Oaks on February 4.
3-year-old Male:In such an inconsistent year, it’s very difficult to find aclear winner here. The simple choice is Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, but not for me.Seriously, if you weren’t willing to consider Mine That Bird a winner after hismuch-better placings in the Triple Crown races, why Animal Kingdom who was doneafter the Belmont Stakes? Preakness winner Shackleford is a gutsy horse thatnever stopped trying, but he only won one race all year, defeated by thehard-charging Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Based on that race,plus his win in the G1 King’s Bishop, Caleb’sPosse (of the three) looks to be the best choice—but he really isn’twinning in the highest level “classic distance” races. In all honesty, I’mfloored that Ruler On Ice isn’t amongthe contenders, let alone the deserving winner! Under the most unlikely ofcircumstances, he captured the G1 Belmont Stakes, defeating both Shacklefordand Animal Kingdom (and don’t give me that lame excuse about Animal Kingdombeing impeded early—bull!). Yes, Shackleford beat him in the G1 Haskell,although Ruler On Ice was closing best of all, but the tables were reversed inthe G1 Travers. Ruler On Ice put in a very credible second in the G2Pennsylvania Derby, and then outshined all his fellow 3-year-olds in runningthird in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As a racehorse whose connections actuallyran him (including, unsuccessfully, in the G1 Clark after the Classic), RulerOn Ice is to me the default champion 3-year-old.Too bad the voters didn't see it that way.
3-year-old Female:This is a category that lost too many promising fillies toinjury (especially St. John’s River) or just flat out poor choices, butthe three finalists are top-notch. With her Breeders’ Cup victory, Royal Delta wins, but It’s Tricky andPlum Pretty did terrific jobs this year.
Older Male:A real conundrum here, with the Breeders’ Cup Classic winnerDrosselmeyer not even nominated—and Ithink that’s a shame. No, he wasn’t a threat to subsequent Breeders’ CupMarathon winner Birdrun in the G2 Brooklyn Handicap—but how many of these “quality”older males even attempted 12 furlongs this year? His connections opted forturf in the G1 Sword Dancer (admittedly a mistake), but his strong closing inthe G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic win should have put him in therunning, especially in such an overall weak year. That said, the finalists areGame On Dude, Tizway and Acclamation,the latter whom is being talked about as the likely winner—although probablyonly as a default because he won’t win in the other category in which he isnominated, Male Turf. I’ve never been a fan of Tizway (although he won the G1Met Mile and G1 Whitney this year), so I guess of the three I wish Game On Dude got serious consideration.All three finalists share one race—the G3 Charles Town Classic—and Game On Dudefinished ahead of the other two carrying far much weight (123 lbs, to Tizway’s117, and Acclamation’s 114). I like that Game On Dude travelled—after winningthe G1 Santa Anita Handicap, he visited West Virginia and Texas, then back inCali captured the G1 Goodwood before just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Classicback in Kentucky. That BC Classic performance is what puts him over the top inmy estimation.
Older Female:Havre de Grace,hands down. That said, if Blind Luck had stayed healthy...oh, what an autumn it would have been! The G2 Delaware Handicap was the best damn race of the year, bar none! Awesome Maria is a nice (but distant) third-place vote getter, in my estimation.
Male Turf:Just because you run in and win only one race in America—andit happens to be the Breeders’ Cup Turf—you don’t deserve to win an Eclipse. IfSt. Nicholas Abbey wins, it is justone more slap in the face to logic and reason, and a crystal-clear example ofwhy there should be exact guidelines(i.e. a set number of races) for being awarded an Eclipse—and one race isn’tit. Cape Blanco should win, having captured three G1 races in the U.S.—the Mano’War, Arlington Million, and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Amazing given thepropensity for former Dubai World Cup competitors to flop when continuing torace in the same year. There’s going to be a lot of West Coast votes forAcclamation with his three straight G1 victories, yet if you can’t travelsuccessfully outside the state of California, you won’t get many votes fromhard-core horse people.
Female Turf:Even before the three finalists were announced I only hadone mare in mind—Stacelita. When youtake on male competitors like she did in the G1 United Nations, and then comeback to win the G1 Beverly D and G1 Flower Bowl—arguably the two biggest mareturf races in America—you deserve this award. Perfect Shirl’s Breeders’ CupFilly and Mare Turf win was—I’ll say it—a fluke, and the only decent race sheran all year against the “best” female competition (and, let’s be honest, that’snot saying much). Since Stacelita easily defeated Dubawi Heights in the BeverlyD, it’s a no-brainer who should win.
Male Sprinter:As the Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion, Amazombie will be the unimaginative selection, but Caleb’s Posse should give him a run forhis money. How bad is the dirt sprint division? The third finalist is Breeders’Cup Turf Sprint winner Regally Ready who’s already been well-beaten to start thisyear.
Female Sprinter:This is a wacky division because Hilda’s Passion will likely win over another lightly-race fillySassy Image—leaving the much more heavily-raced Breeders’ Cup Filly and MareSprint winner Musical Romance in third-place. That really sucks because, as afan and an advocate for actually running horses instead of keeping them in thebarn and parading them out only on special occasions, Musical Romance and her connections deserve this award.
Trainer:Probably based solely on the Breeders’ Cup performances ofRoyal Delta and Drosselmeyer, Bill Mott shouldwin this award, defeating the well-coiffured juggernaut that is Todd Pletcherand Bob Baffert. Still, H. Graham Motion should have gotten more considerationby voters if, for no other reason other than being one of the “good-guys” inthe sport—oh, and winning the Kentucky Derby with a grass horse.
Jockey:Ramon Dominguez, Javier Castellano and John Velazquez arethree of my favorite “money” jocks, but rather unimaginatively I expect Ramon Dominguez to win, as the topearner and with the best win/WPS percentages. Still, I would have replacedCastellano with Joel Rosario in thisconversation, and maybe even Rafael Bejarano instead of John Velazquez (despitehis Derby win)—a serious East Coast bias exists in this category, I’m sorry tosay.
Breeder:Every time you turned around, another Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey homebred—many sired by Kitten’s Joy—triumphantlycrossed the finish line in 2011. Hands-down winners to me over Brereton Jonesand Frank Stronach’s Adena Springs.
Owner:Again, to me Kenneth& Sarah Ramsey rule, although strictly based on numbers MidwestThoroughbreds will probably win. And while Team Valor did have the KentuckyDerby winner, Maggi Moss should havebeen in the final three—her 495 starters won 34% of the time, and finished inthe money 68%! That is a brilliant record.
Enjoy the show!
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