Golden Slipper Day

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Fantastic all-group stakes card at Rosehill this evening(Saturday in Australia), including the first leg of Australia’s 2-year-oldTriple Crown, the G1 Golden Slipper. There’s no Black Caviar, but it will be a fantastic day of racing with thetrack likely rated Good 3. My thoughts on the prime contenders, with somelongshot hopefuls tossed in for good measure:


1A The Schweppervescence (G3, 2yo, 7f) 9:45 p.m. EDT
Her improving form makes G2-placed Flying Snitzel a logical choice; her dam Hula Flight won the G1Metropolitan Handicap over the talented Nothin Leica Dane. Mildly concerning isher going up six pounds in weight, but she is the most proven horse in thefield. Humble Power, Fiveandahalfstar, and Rise To The Top come out of the same 7frace, but don’t necessarily look too threatening here, although with blinkersadded, Fiveandahalfstar should runcloser to the pace. The filly Dear Demihas won over this track and looks to enjoy the extra ground.
For a longshot chance, the lightly-raced Toydini by Bernardini (out of the G1Doncaster runner-up Johan’s Toy) should like the firmer surface and turn thetables on Smart Man who defeated himlast time.

2A Sebring Stakes (G3, 3yo+, 5.5f) 10:25 p.m. EDT
He’s been away from the scene since October 2010, and it’sbeen even longer since Mic Mac haswon a race (August 2009), but he’s put in two solid barrier trials in advanceof this start, so I would not be surprised to see him win. Poor Temple of Boom has had no luck of late,clashing with likes of Black Caviar and Hay List, but those races were on theFlemington straight track. G2-placed DoYou Think also comes in off two sharp barrier trials, with Blake Shinnaboard for Bart Cummings.
For a bit of a price, Zaratoneis a worthy bet, with a great record at this distance and over this track.

3A Vinery Stud Stakes (G1, 3yo fillies, SW, 10f)11:05 p.m. EDT
At set weights, Oaks winner Mosheen looks tough to beat here; she’s won two straight G1 races(Australian Guineas and Royal Randwick Guineas) and has already run farther. G1Flight Stakes winner Streama willtake a lot of play as well, but this will be her first attempt beyond one mile;a place chance. My longshot play here is New Zealand-bred Thy, an O’Reilly filly whose half brother Solid Billing finishedthird in the G1 Sydney Cup going two miles. With the potent combo of trainerPeter Moody and jockey Luke Nolen, she’s a big chance especially after justmissing last time out going this distance. Big step up in class, though.
4A Myer Tulloch Stakes (G2, 3yo colts/geldings, 10f)11:45 p.m. EDT
Rekindled Allianceis the likely post-time favorite and has some quality about him; his fullbrother Rekindled Interest ran third in the G1 Cox Plate and won the G2 AAMIVase over 10f. He should come flying late. Undefeated Strawberry Boy takes a huge step in class and distance, but if hecan carry his early speed the distance he’s a likely wire-to-wire winner. Gai’sgot another top contender in Compasswho’s already proven at a route; his dam is a half sister to superstar MakybeDiva. A Waterhouse trifecta? Possibly, with Satirical Boy enjoying a huge drop in weight off his last win; hisunraced dam is out of 10f listed winner Sardegna, and a full sister to 12f G2runner-up Samoa.

5A The BMW (G1, 3yo+, 12f) 12:25 a.m. EDT
What a marvelous stayers’ race, pitting in-form Americain and Manighar against one another, along with the nice mare Southern Speed. Those three recentlymet in the G1 Australian Cup, with Manighareeking out the win. I’d expect those three to mix it up again today, but for aprice, good ol’ Precedence is wortha flyer longshot bet.

6A Inglis Queen of the Turf (G1, 3yo+ filles/maresWFA, 7.5f) 1:05 a.m. EDT
The shocking death this week of Pinker Pinker takes some thrill out of this race. Chances are More Joyous will successfully defend hertitle, but last-out G1 Coolmore Classic victress Ofcourseican could give her a late run for her money; she’s got anexcellent record over this course, but meeting at equal weights probably favorsMore Joyous. Making her third startthis cycle, King’s Rose finishedbrilliantly in the Coolmore Classic, and actually gets some weight relief.While not likely, I would love to see hard-trying Yosei get another G1 victory.

7A AAMI Golden Slipper (G1, 2yo, 6f) 1:50 a.m. EDT
The field of 16 is evenly divided between colts and fillies,but only one stands out as the post-time favorite, the undefeated More ThanReady filly Samaready. To say herruns thus far have been impressive would be an understatement; she’s displayeda brilliant turn-of-foot, gutsy toughness and won all four of her races withease, including the G1 Blue Diamond against males. Her dam is a half sister tomultiple G1 winner County Tyrone (Queensland Derby, Metropolitan Handicap, andSydney Cup) who won as far as two miles, so it’s exciting to think of herfuture career. Craig “Froggy” Newitt will be challenged breaking from the 11barrier post, but that should be her only challenge. My top pick. Trainer GaiWaterhouse has five entries, led by the undefeated Lonho colt Pierro with Nash Rawiller up. His damis also a half sister to a multiple G1 winner, Laverock (Prix D’Ispahan, GranPremio del Jockey Club Italiano), so his future stretching out also lookspromising. He breaks from the rail post, though, which could be a littleproblematic.
Of the remaining male contenders, Epaulette looks promising after his narrow defeat to Pierro last out; his three-quarter brotherHelmet was a multiple G1 winningjuvenile. The fillies’ contingent looks very powerful, beginning with Gai’sundefeated Fastnet Rock filly Driefontein,as well as No Looking Back and Snitzerland, both of whom have beenclearly defeated by Samaready. Allthree are serious exotics choices.
For my longshot pick, thought, I’m rooting for the maiden Exceedand Excel colt Narcissus to breakout with a placing here; his Snippets dam Hasna finished third in this raceback in 2003 after being blocked for a run, and then convincingly won the nexttwo legs of the Triple Crown for Gai Waterhouse: the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakesand G1 Champagne Stakes. Oh, and did I mention Hasna’s second damsire is FoolishPleasure?

8A George Ryder (G1, 3yo+, WFA, 7.5f) 2:35 a.m. EDT
It could be a huge night for trainer Gai Waterhouse, and 3-year-oldNiagara is her hope in this race,although he’ll have to win from the far outside 16 barrier against seasonedcampaigners. Off his recent good form against Manighar, last year’s victor Rangirangdoo has a strong chance torepeat, as he loves this track and the distance. King Mufhasa defeated the late Pinker Pinker last out in the G1Futurity Stakes, but in three previous efforts he’s never managed to finishbetter than third at Rosehill, including the 2010 George Ryder. The mare Secret Admirer is in sharp form andgets a good barrier. For a longshot, look no further than Monton with Craig Newitt aboard.

9A HKJC Stakes (G3, 3yo+, 10f) 3:10 a.m. EDT
Maules Creek is inexcellent form, and a lightweight compared to the more experienced campaignerslike Zavite who takes a real classdrop here. For a big price, I’m willing to wager on Gai’s duo, Western Symbol and Charing Cross.