Just What Makes a Derby Contender

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Last week my Top 10 list of Kentucky Derby contenders overat the Paulick Report elicited a skeptical comment as to why Dullahan is my top pick when he had been sick and hadn’t posted aworkout in over a month (he eventually did workfive furlongs on Saturday). I didn’t bother to post a response there as rationalexplanations inevitably seem to turn into nasty attacks online, but it is apoint worth justifying.

When putting together a list of Derby contenders, my overridingconsideration is which horse can get the 10-furlong distance. Period. I don’tcare if a horse wins a 7-furlong or 1-mile grade 1 event yesterday; I need toknow, or at least reasonable expect, a horse can run the classic distance. Onlythen do I factor in a horse’s previous performances—and they don’t have to bewinning ones to merit serious consideration. With that in mind, here are mythoughts on my current Top 10 list:

1. Dullahan (Even the Score-Mining My Own, by SmartStrike) While he may not scream 10-furlong horse, his unraced damhas already produced a Kentucky Derby winner, half brother Mine That Bird. His lightly-raced second dam Aspenelle finished second in the 9-furlong Canadian Oaks. Sure, it’snot a slam-dunk pedigree, but taking into consideration his juvenile races, Ithink he’s a live chance for trainer Dale Romans even with only a two-race prep.In his maiden effort last June at Churchill he finished third behind G3Bashford Manor winner Exfactor andrecent G3 El Camino Real Derby victor DaddyNose Best, the latter who has proven to be good quality. After one moredirt race and then switching to turf for his next two outings at Saratoga(including a third-place finish in the G2 With Anticipation), Dullahan finally broke his maiden in October,with an impressive victory in the G1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity over Keeneland’sPolytrack. However, the piècede résistance in my eyes was his performance in theG1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where closing like a freight train he got up forfourth-place behind Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause. To me, it was far more impressive than any otherperformance in the race, and an indication of great things to come from him.That his connections decided long ago to take a conservative route to the Derbydoesn’t bother me any longer, given how delicately three-year-old colts andgeldings are handled these days. We’ll next see him on March 11 in the grassy G3Palm Beach over nine furlongs, and then at Keeneland for the G1 Blue GrassStakes—not exactly a Derby winner-producing race lately, but not one to be discountedgiven that last year’s winner BrilliantSpeed went on to finish third in the G1 Belmont Stakes, and before thatrunner-up Paddy O’Prado subsequentlyran third in the Derby behind SuperSaver and Ice Box. Hey, we nolonger live in the age of Seattle Slew,Affirmed or Spectacular Bid, let alone RealQuiet, Victory Gallop or Smarty Jones. Beggars can’t be choosy,and Derby winners just aren’t that predictable to select these days. Call this a gut selection.
2. Algorithms (Bernardini-Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Lightly-raced? Hell yes. Beat nothing in his maiden effort lastJune or in his final juvenile race at Gulfstream in December, but that G3 HolyBull win over 2-year-old champion Hansenwas impressive (stumble or no stumble). His G3-placed dam won at 8.5 furlongs,and has already produced G2 winner KeyedEntry (Honour and Glory) whofinished third behind Bob and John andJazil in the G1 Wood Memorial. She’salso birthed G3 miler Successful Mission(Successful Appeal) and G1-placedsprinter Justin Phillip (First Samurai), so I’m thinkingBernardini could lengthen him out. Another good sign: his warhorse second dam Ava Romance was a stakeswinner at10-furlongs—and her sire Avatar wonthe 12-furlong G1 Belmont Stakes. Plus, I just love Cryptoclearance! Algorithms’next start: Sunday’s G2 Fountain of Youth.
3. BattleHardened (Giant’s Causeway-Jen’sFashion, by Northern Fashion) Just nosed out going nine furlongs at Gulfstream on NewYear' Eve, this Eddie Kenneally-trainee crushed the 8.5-furlong G3 Sam F. Davislast out, and in impressive enough fashion for me to consider him a seriousDerby horse. His sire’s predilection for stamina is well-documented; hisdamline is equally noteworthy given that his damsire Northern Fashion was G3-placed in France going 12 furlongs. Hisjuvenile stakes-winning dam Jen’sFashion has also produced a half-brother Colonial Colony (Pleasant Colony) won the 9-furlong G1 StephenFoster.
4. Union Rags (Dixie Union-Tempo, by Gone West) Honestly, I’m not totally sold on his Derby chances, butgiving respect to his juvenile achievements he makes the list. His full brotherGeefour toiledmostly in the claiming ranks as a sprinter, as did most of his siblings. Yet, his half sister Tempo West has produced 10-furlong Europeanwinners Vertiformer (Dynaformer) and War Power (Pulpit); thelatter once defeated G1 Champion Stakes victor Cirrus Des Aigles. His second dam Terpsichorist won the 12-furlong G3 Long Island Handicap, so Isuppose the stamina could be there…we’ll see how good he is on Sunday whenJulien Leparoux climbs aboard him for the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.
5. Alpha (Bernardini-Munnaya, by Nijinsky) Runner-up behind UnionRags in the G1 Champagne last fall, he failed to impressive in the Breeders’Cup Juvenile. However, he’s come back strong this year, winning the Count Fleetand the G3 Withers. His Nijinsky (!)dam won the 11.5-furlong English Oaks Trial, and she’s produced some nicestakes-quality horses—Dreamalong Lavender Sky, Mystic Melody, and Numaany—andfive winners at or beyond 10 furlongs. This is also the family of champion Kamar (Key to the Mint) who producedmultiple G1-winner Gorgeous, G1Kentucky Oaks victress SeasideAttraction (dam of G1 Florida Derby winner Cape Town and champion juvenile filly Golden Attraction), and Queen’s Plate victor Key to the Moon.
6. Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer, by SiberianSummer) I’m not seriously considering a California-based horse alikely Derby winner, but Creative Causetops my list of West Coast horses that could do well, especially after his eventhird-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His recent third-place finishin the 7-furlong G2 San Vicente hardly disappointed given how short it was, anddisappointing with only four entrants. His G1 Apple Blossom-winning dam Dream of Summer wasn’t precocious,breaking her maiden first-out at age 4, but she proved to be one tough cookie,twice just missing in the 9-furlong G1 Santa Margarita and winning 10 of 20starts, failing to hit the board only 3 times. Next for him: possibly March 17’sG2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.
7. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat-Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled’sSong) Last out, he won the 1-mile G3 Sham Stakes over Secret Circle, the Breeders’ Cup JuvenileSprint winner who this week captured the faster heat of the G3 SouthwestStakes. His damline is tremendously impressive, given his dam Unbridled Elaine not only won the G1Breeders’ Cup Distaff over the tremendous mare Spain, but she also ran a game second to Macho Uno in the 9-furlong G3 Pennsylvania Derby. She’s alreadyproduced (by Forestry) the G2 winnerEtched who won multiple times atnine furlongs so his miler sire Discreet Cat isn’t necessarily a hindrance. Unbridled Elaine’s half sister Glitter Woman, winner of the G1Ashland, is the dam of 10-furlong G1 Suburban victor Political Force (by Unbridled’sSong), while another half sister Gwenjinskybirthed multiple G2 victress Lead Story.
8. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat-West Side Dancer, by GoneWest) While he has yet to race beyond one mile, this Todd Pletchertrainee has just dominated his competition thus far. Although he missed arecent workout due to fever, he’s on schedule to start in Sunday’s G2 Fountainof Youth along with stablemate Algorithms.I’m absolutely concerned about his distance limitations; his dam’s other runnerTravelin Man (Trippi) won the 7-furlong G2 Swale last year and Pletcher kept himin sprints. There’s nothing to think he’ll get the Derby distance, so I expecthim to drop off my list soon, probably after this weekend.
9. El Padrino (Pulpit-Enchanted Rock, by Giant’sCauseway) Honestly, he should be ranked ahead of stablemate Discreet Dancer—and probably will afterthis weekend’s G2 Risen Star. His recent first-level allowance race win over8.5 furlongs was beautifully done, and his breeding strong indicates he wantslonger. His G1-winning second dam ChicShirine also produced the 10-furlong G2 Ladies Handicap winner Tara Roma (dam of 9-furlong G1 Go ForWand victress Serra Lake). This isalso the family of G1 Haskell runner-up CoalPlay, G2 Lake Placid victress HungryIsland, 11-furlong French G1-placed Baraan,and multiple 12-furlong G1-placed AlKhali.
10. Russian Greek (Giant’s Causeway-Sand Dollar, by Grindstone) Seriously, look at that pedigree. It screams stamina. Hisdam’s half brother, Breeders’ Cup Classic victor Cat Thief, finished less than a length behind Charismatic and Menifeein the 1999 Kentucky Derby. His second dam TrainRobbery ran second in the 10-furlong G2 Delaware Handicap, while his thirddam Track Robbery won multiple timesat nine furlongs, including the G1 Vanity, Apple Blossom and Spinster. RussianGreek broke his maiden at first-ask on dirt at Santa Rosa, but since then hasonly raced over the Tapeta track at Golden Gate, winning the 8.5 furlongCalifornia Derby before disappointing last weekend in the 9-furlong G3 ElCamino Real Derby. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer doesn’thave plans for his next race yet, but, boy, I’d like to see him on dirt—maybein the $800k G3 Sunland Derby on March 25?