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As January has passed into February, it’s time to hunkerdown and get serious—about Kentucky Derby contenders, naturally. With threepreps on Saturday (not to mention a couple interesting maiden races), I’m justabout fully engaged with horse racing again. If you haven’t done so already,please sign up for DerbyPrep Alert at Hello Race Fans!—not onlyare we previewing all the major Derby and Oaks races, but you can get FREE pastperformances for the races, courtesy of Brisnet.com.Here are my thoughts on Saturday’s races:
Santa Anita, Race 1:Making his debut, Stratify(A.P. Indy) is the first foal out of G2 Honorable Miss victress Burmilla, whocrushed her maiden effort going six furlongs—not to mention her multipleG1-placed dam Nannerl won first-up. As per Darley initiative, he won’t run onLasix, and breaking from the rail doesn’t appear advantageous, so I’ll take apass this time on him. Bob Baffert sends out Mile High Magic (Roman Ruler) who’s posted blazing works in advanceof this start—his unraced dam is out of champion Hall of Fame mareSilverbulletday. Bet on him taking serious money with Martin Garcia aboard.Likely for a price consider Broker Brett(More Than Ready); as any good Distorted Humor filly should, his dam Queen ofGreen won at first-asking, and he comes from a strong performing family,including G2 turf winner Turnofthecentury who smashed a large field going 8.5furlong on dirt in his maiden effort—winning by nearly 10 lengths.
Aqueduct, Race 9 (G3 Withers):Alpha(Bernardini) is among my Top Ten Derby contenders at this point, and off hisdominating Count Fleet victory last out, the Withers appears to be at hismercy. If I had to choose an upset chance, it would be Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat), an impressive allowance winner hisfirst time on dirt. His unraced dam’s half brother Supremo won the G2 Norfolk—notto mention his unraced second dam is a half sister to Dynaformer. From therail, Hakama (First Samurai) shouldalso be in the exotics; he broke his maiden in impressive style over thistrack, and comes from an impressive Claiborne Farms family that includes G3Louisiana Derby runner-up Stop Watch and G3 off-turf Transylvania winner BossLafitte.
Gulfstream, Race 9:If any maiden race this weekend could produce a Classicwinner, this 9-furlong dirt event would be it. A likely contender is Battle Hardened (Giant’s Causeway) whojust missed at this distance last out—he’s a half brother to G1 Stephen Fosterwinner Colonial Colony. Finishing just behind Battle Hardened in that December31 race, Suns Out Guns Out (EmpireMaker) also should be in the exotics; his dam is a full sister to G1-placedrouter Tenpins. Tiz Yankee (Tiznow)has the damline breeding as well—his second dam, G1 Vanity winner PrivatePersuasion is a full sister to Torchera, dam of G1 Belmont winner Da’Tara. MarkCasse sends out a dynamic duo that still appear distance-challenged: WinePolice’s half brother Moon Traveler(Malibu Moon) and Dynamical (HardSpun) whose half sister is G1 Matron runner-up Featherbed. Todd Pletcher entry Dixie Dice (Dixie Union) is closelyrelated to G1 Travers runner-up Grasshopper, which is probably why he brought$400k as a yearling. For price, Awaited(Unbridled’s Song) is a huge upset chance here. Forget that Saratoga race—this fullbrother to G1 Belmont runner-up Dunkirk has been working extremely well inadvance of this 2012 debut, and with blinkers on looks to make his G1 KentuckyOaks-winning dam Secret Status proud.
Tampa Bay, Race 11 (G3 Sam F. Davis):Everywhere he runs these days, Todd Pletcher has a hot hand,but I’m not sold on Ecabroni (SmokeGlacken) here. State of Play (WarFront) should make the transition from turf to dirt with ease, while GulfstreamPark Derby winner Reveron(Songandaprayer) hopes to transfer his good form to Tampa Bay. Given hisprevious form here, Prospective (MalibuMoon) could be an underlay, and if he runs here instead of at Gulfstream, I’mall in on Battle Hardened (Giant’sCauseway).
Santa Anita, Race 6 (G2 Robert B. Lewis):With Liaison (IndianCharlie) and Sky Kingdom (EmpireMaker), Bob Baffert is doubly-blessed in this race—the latter is just behindAlpha on my Top Ten Derby list. RousingSermon (Lucky Pulpit) has twice just missed against Liaison, and looks tobe training well in advance of this start. That said, I’m thrilled to see Isn’t He Clever (Smarty Jones) shippingin from Sunland to take on the big boys, as he’s definitely got classy breeding—hisdam is a full sister to multiple G1-placed Flag Down. For a price, Myung KwonCho’s Groovin’ Solo (Bob and John)could be an upset for the exotics; his half brother Street Hero won the G1Norfolk, while another half brother Premier Pegasus won last year’s G2 SanFelipe.
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