Breeders' Cup Saturday

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Other than MusicalRomance ($42.40) in the F&M Sprint and Perfect Shirl ($57.60) in the F&M Turf, Breeders’ Cup Fridaywas fairly chalky, as favorites captured the Juvenile Sprint (Secret Circle), Juvenile Fillies (My Miss Aurelia) and Ladies’ Classic (Royal Delta).
Some thoughts on Saturday’s races—if you haven’t already,join us on Twitter as theday promises to be lively in terms of real-time handicapping andlast-minute changes of heart.
Race 3—Breeders’ Cup Marathon (post 1:20 p.m.)Never tested on dirt, the sole filly entrant Meeznah holds many charms here, havingwon over this distance in the G3 Lillie Langtry earlier this summer, defeatinga stamina filly I admire a great deal, Motrice. By Dynaformer out of a Sadler’sWells mare, she’ll be attempting dirt for the dirt time. Brigantin defeated Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden in FR-G2 PrixVicomtesse Vigier in May; his German-bred dam Banyu Dewi finished third behindHoney Ryder and Film Maker in the 2005 G3 Glens Falls. With Julien Leparouxaboard, this Cozzene 4-year-old colt has a big chance if he can adapt to dirt.Last year’s winner Eldaafer has runwell, but I expect A.U. Miner toreturn off his G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup race in better form.Winner: Afleet Again($85.20)
Race 4—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (post 2:02 p.m.)The art historian in me is rooting hard for Caspar Netscherwhile the sentimentalist in me likes FantasticSong (his dam is a half-sister to Perfect Shirl who captured the F&MTurf on Friday). Finale has beenquite impressive since switching to grass, but his fellow Scat Daddy-siredbrethren Daddy Nose Best couldoutfinish him with a better post position. The Ramsey homebred Coalport could be dangerous cuttingback in distance, as could first-time turfster Majestic City (City Zip).Winner: Wrote($25.20)
Race 5—Breeders’ Cup Sprint (post 2:37 p.m.)Boy, I’d like to see old Euroears pop a surprise here! Runner-up in the G1 Dubai GoldenShaheen back in March, he failed miserably in the mud last out in the G1Vosburgh, but has worked gangbusters since then. Breaking from the rail, hewill contest the early lead with ForceFreeze, with Giant Ryan close aswell. Whether defending champion BigDrama is fit enough to make waves here is suspect; I do believe Jackson Bend will be moving well latefor a placing.Winner: Amazombie($17.80)
Race 6—Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (post 3:21 p.m.)Unfortunately, there’s no Black Caviar in here, but the Ramsey’s 3-year-old Kitten’s Joyfilly Holiday for Kitten made berounding into form at just the right time. Disappointing in the G1 King’s Standat Ascot, her narrow win over Musical Romance last out was certainly flatteredby that mare winning the F&M Sprint on Friday. The Aussie-bred Hoofit has captured both U.S. startssince arriving from New Zealand early this year—love his chances here. Lastyear’s Turf Sprint winner Chamberlain Bridge is getting a bit long in the toothand drew very wide (14); perhaps youngster RegallyReady is better suited to win here, having captured the G1 Nearctic lastout. Perfect Officer likely in themix as well.Winner: Regally Ready($6.60) * only winning favorite
Race 7—Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (post 4:01 p.m.)Had his connections so chosen, this race would be at themercy of Uncle Mo. Instead, we’re left with some tired 3-year-olds cutting back,and a few sprinters stretching out. Preakness winner Shackleford and pre-Derby hype horse The Factor are the early speed, breaking from the two inside posts,but I find it difficult to believe they will have much left at the end. Wilburn who comes in with a 3-race winstreak seems to be a progressive type, while Caleb’s Posse should enjoy the cutback (and, remember, he defeatedUncle Mo in the G1 King’s Bishop). TrappeShot was disappointing in the mud last out, but should improve. For alongshot selection, I see Barclay Tagg-trained Jersey Town reversing form off his defeat at the hands of Uncle Moin the G2 Kelso.Winner: Caleb’s Posse($15.60)
Race 8—Breeders’ Cup Turf (post 4:45 p.m.)Last year’s F&M Turf runner-up Midday takes on the boys this year—but her biggest competitioncould be the filly Sarafina Whiledisappointing in the Arc, Sarafinahas outperformed her nemesis of late. Lightly-raced Await the Dawn gets the services of Julien Leparoux, but I can’thelp but think he’d rather be on Dean’sKitten, perhaps the best American chance.Winner: St. NicholasAbbey ($15.60)
Race 9—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (post 5:25 p.m.)Union Rags is thelikely winner, but since he’s never run beyond one mile there’s still somequery of his ability to stay the 8.5 furlongs. If he had been entered in theJuvenile Sprint, I’d been all over Crusade,first offspring of the talented sprinter La Traviata. Not sure I’m buying himhere, nor Daddy Long Legs who looksbetter suited to grass. However, I do like Optimizer,an English Channel colt with lots of precocious dirt performers on his damside.He lost last out to Dullahan, aCinderella story in the making, being a 1/2 brother to Kentucky Derby winnerMine That Bird. Out of G1 Apple Blossom victress Dream of Summer, G1 Norfolkwinner Creative Cause has thehighest BRIS speed figure in the field—and a nice mid-field post draw. Fartheroutside, Florida-invader Fort Loudonis getting no respect, but his 1/2 sister is the dam of G1 victor Jackson Bend.Winner: Hansen($16.20)
Race 10—Breeders’ Cup Mile (post 6:07 p.m.)I love Goldikova,and nothing would make me happier than to see her captured her fourthconsecutive BC Mile, but…time has perhaps caught up with her? Courageous Cat finished just behind himin the 2009 edition, as did Gio Pontilast year. Toss in Get Stormy and Turallure, and the top four are inthere somewhere.Winner: Court Vision($131.60)
Race 11—Breeders’ Cup Classic (post 7:00 p.m.)Havre de Gracefor me, with To Honor and Serverunning big for Bill Mott. I find it telling that Jose Lezcano sticks with To Honor and Serve rather than Drosselmeyer, thus give the former ahuge chance in here for a placing. I’ve never been a fan of Flat Out, but won’t deny he’s run bigthis year. I don’t believe Uncle Mocan get the distance, not to mention he’s incredibly light in race-fitness tocompete with the likes of these. So YouThink is a magnificent horse, but his schedule this year has been toospread out—when in Australia, he thrived on running back quickly. I wouldn’t besurprised if he was there at the end, but hard to factor him the winner over Havre de Grace. Ah, and then there’s Stay Thirsty—my Kentucky Derby pick.Hard to see him defeating Havre de Grace,but won’t discount his chances entirely.Winner: Drosselmeyer($31.60)