Breeders' Cup Friday

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Some thoughts on Friday’s races—if you haven’t already, joinus on Twitter as the next two dayspromise to be lively in terms of real-time handicapping and last-minute changesof heart.
Race 5—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint (post 4:10 p.m.)There’s little doubt that Secret Circle will go off a huge favorite here, but purely forsentimental reasons I love Trinniberg,being a huge fan of his hard-working sire Teuflesberg. He’s a Grade 1 runner-up witha lot of early speed, and look for him to reverse his narrow second-placefinish behind Vexor. With hisexperience over the track and early speed, Sumof the Parts is a likely place-getter as well; his G1-placed dam Enjoy theMoment didn’t fare so well in the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but this son ofSpeightstown posted a sharp 5-furlong work in advance of this race. And howcould you dismiss Seeker from therail; this Hard Spun colt would only further validate the strong start his sirehas had at stud.Winner: Secret Circle
Race 6—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf (post 4:50 p.m.)A Group 1 winner in France, Elusive Kate is an obviously selection—her dam is 1/2 sister to BCClassic winner Pleasantly Perfect. However, fresh off his winning pick-up rideon Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden, jockey Christophe Lemaire is aboard Dear Lavinia, a Grand Slam fillypurchased by Bobby Flay just for this race (he won last year’s contest withMore Than Real). A direct damline descendent of the great broodmare Cosmah, Dear Lavinia probably wants fartherthan a mile, but could pop a surprise; her recent narrow second-place finishagainst French Fifteen was flattered when he captured the FR-G1 CriteriumInternational this past weekend. Also for a price, My Gi Gi is worth a hard-look; cutting back in distance andreturning to turf after a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf, she’sbeautifully bred for turf—her Sadler’s Wells dam Relish The Thought was Group1-placed over 12-furlongs in the English Oaks. This is also the family of Grade1 American Oaks victress Gozzip Girl and BC Juvenile winner Bucco. Stephanie’s Kitten is the choice ridefor John Velazquez, but I’m mildly concerned about her finding room to closelate. Another Kitten’s Joy filly, SweetCat may be more suitably placed for a strong finish with her early speed.Off her crushing defeat of males in the Cup & Saucer last out, Hard Not To Like (Hard Spun) isalso…hard not to like.Winner: Stephanie’sKitten
Race 7—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly & Mare Sprint(post 5:30 p.m.)The much-hyped TurbulentDescent hasn’t raced since early August—either she’ll be brilliantly freshor lacking fitness in her first race against older mares. Another 3-year-old Ilike is Pomeroys Pistol—although herworst race of the year was here in the Grade 3 Eight Belles. Switch loves the 7-furlongs distanceand has run big all year. For a price, you can’t ignore Grade 2 PID Masterswinner Musical Romance who, in eightstarts since April hasn’t missed a placing. She’s a hard-trying, gutsyfilly—much like Shotgun Gulch whowas closely nicely in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff over this track in early May.The far outside 13 post won’t bother her, as Gomez is likely to drop her backearly, but she’ll need an extraordinary performance to close late against thelikes of Turbulent Descent and Switch.Winner: MusicalRomance
Race 8—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly (post 6:10 p.m.)Undefeated My MissAurelia hasn’t stumbled yet, but neither has dual Grade 1 winner Weemissfrankie nor Grade 1 Spinawayvictress Grace Hall. A directdamline descendent of Preakness winner Nellie Morse, Grace Hall’s third damLife At The Top was a multiple Grade 1 route winner, and there’s tons ofquality in this family—loved her last race! Northern Passion attempts dirt for the first time; her dam is afull-sister to Canadian juvenile champion filly Ginger Gold. Aidan O’Brienships in the much-raced Homecoming Queen,a three-quarter sister to Dylan Thomas—a placing here would be surprising. Justas surprising would be Questing(Hard Spun), a direct damline descendent of the great Vagrancy. Winner: My MissAurelia
Race 9—Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (post 6:50p.m.)I just can’t get past Stacelitawho, frankly, I’d prefer to have seen in Saturday’s Turf race. However, it’sthe Euros Nahrain and Announce that will probably take allthe money; of the two, Announce hasmore upside, with strong form vs. Cirrus Des Aigles, as well as a Group 3 victoryover 13-furlongs—longer than this race. Among the American contestants, it’shard to fault the form of Dubawi Heights,but I question her stamina for this distance. For a longshot flyer, Distorted Legacy looks appealing—a half sister to Belmont Stakesrunner-up Vision and Verse, she’s been training well for this start.Winner: Perfect Shirl
Race 10—Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (post 7:30p.m.)I handicapped the Distaff for ThoroFan—you can find the completeanalysis here.For me, it comes down to Plum Prettyoutlasting Miss Match, withupset-minded Ultra Blend and/or Ask The Moon at play for the exotics.Off her crushing defeat by Havre de Grace, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Royal Delta run big for Bill Mott either.Winner: Royal Delta
Good luck with all your wagers! [Updated with winners at 7:57 p.m.]