Examining the Cox Plate Card

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Australia’s Spring Carnival action moves to Moonee Valleythis weekend with seven group races, including the prestigious G1 Cox Plate. Anoddly-designed sharp-turn anti-clockwise track, Moonee Valley usually requiressome previous success over it so take that into consideration whenhandicapping. My thoughts on Saturday’s (late Friday night here in the U.S.)races, considering the projected “Dead” track condition (but I reserve the right to change my mind too, so follow along on Twitter!):

In race 1, a maiden special weight sprint for juveniles,first-time starter Balmodena (GoodJourney) looks promising; her half-brother Masthead finished third behind theexcellent colt Sepoy and filly Hallowell Belle in the AUS-G1 Blue Diamond as a2-year-old—and actually finished second in this very race last year. Balmodenahas trialed twice in preparation for this. Go The Cats(Purrealist) should be of interest to Americans—her second dam is fantasticmultiple-G1 winner Frans Valentine, making her dam is a full-sister to FR-G1placed With Fascination and half-sister to multiple-G1 winner WithAnticipation.
UPDATE: Go The Cats was a pre-race scratch, while Balmodena a gate scratch. Not a good start.
Listed Essendon Jeep Stakes (1600m) Race 2Bliss Street(Flying Spur) is the most accomplished filly in the race, winner of the G3 1000Guineas Prelude little over a month ago, then runner-up to Mosheen in the G2Edward Manifold. Last out, however, she underwent a vet exam after finishingninth of 11 in the G1 Thousand Guineas. This being her sixth start thiscampaign, and off that questionable effort, it’s hard to back her here,especially as topweight and a previous poor effort over this track. Maiden Torah (Spinning World) just missed lastout over this track, and is already a listed race runner-up. The trainer-jockeycombination of Peter Moody-Luke Nolen gives her a big shot to break throughwith a win, even from far outside post position.
UPDATE: Torah wins at 6-1. Bliss Street game to stay on for second.
G3 Red Anchor Stakes/1300 Australia Stakes (1200m) Race 3While Karuta Queen(Not a Single Doubt) was no match for Black Caviar two weeks ago, she should bemore than enough against these. The Moody-Nolen colt Beckon (Charge Forward) steps up in class; out of the G2-placedmare Chatelaine, this boy is a full-brother to G1 winning mare Headway. Miss Stellabelle (Dehere) won the G3Champagne Stakes over this track most recently, meriting a solid chance aswell.
UPDATE: No problem for Karuta Queen at 8-5; Miss Stellabelle second. Beckon out of top fours.
G2 AAMI Vase (2040m) Race 4The small field of six features a hot favorite, Manawanui (Oratorio) who was narrowlybeaten by the terrific Helmet last out in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. However,he’s never traveled this far, which is why I’ll be looking closely at the NewZealand-bred Collar (O’reilly) who wonthe listed Doncaster Stakes second-up this campaign, but as topweight finishedthird last out and underwent a vet exam. His half-brother Larry’s Never Late(Pentire) won at 2400m, even finishing a narrow third in the G1 QueenslandDerby in 2009; his dam Laebeel finished second to Sky Heights in the 1999 G1Caulfield Cup.
UPDATE: 1-5 Manawanui proved he could get the distance; 3-1 Collar runner-up.
G2 Schweppes Stakes (1200m) Race 5Only four geldings are willing to take on undefeated Black Caviar (Bel Esprit), the best ofwhich is 3-time G1 winner Scenic Blast(Scenic), back on Aussie soil after campaigning last year in the United Statesfor John Shirreffs. He hasn’t raced for nearly 11 months so defeating BlackCaviar would be an extraordinary achievement. Betting the super mare makes it15 straight victories.
UPDATE: No contest. The Queen won with such amazing ease. Scenic Blast in an impossible spot first back, finished last of four that ran.
G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) Race 6Aprep for the G1 Melbourne Cup, some quality horses go in this race includinglast year’s Melbourne Cup winner Americain(Dynaformer). Sorry, but there’s no way I’m backing him. Gai Waterhouse-trainedTullamore (Savabeel) quickly backsup off an impressive third-place finish in last weekend’s G1 Caulfield Cup, andI really like the trajectory of Shewan(Blevic) who posted an impressive win in the G2 Herbert Powers last out. Themaster Bart Cummings trains the German invader Illo (Tertullian) who makes his first start since July; a listedwinner last out, he finished second to Elle Shadow in the G3 Grosser Preis derWirtschaft—and that G1 placed mare subsequently finished third in the G1Grosser Dallmayr-Preis. Last year’s Caulfield Cup runner-up Harris Tweed (Montjeu) just hasn’t beenthe same horse this year, so it’s hard to back him. However, longshot chance Anudjawun (Yamanin Vital) put in a nicefifth-place effort in the G2 Herbert Powers; his dam Perceptible was a G2runner-up in the 2000m Awapuni Gold Cup. Finally, gallant 7-year-old mare Swooper (Black Hawk) attempts groupcompany for the first time, but she loves this track, having won 4 of 7efforts.
UPDATE: Warning to other bettors: don't let emotions get in the way of betting. I'm not entirely sure why, but I've always had a hatred for Americain. So, he wins. Followed in order by Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawun and Shewan, which ultimately formed my superfecta. Don't you hate when that happens? Blah!
G2Crystal Mile (1600m) Race 7Luen Yat Forever(Honours List) totally flopped in last year’s Cox Plate, but enters this raceoff a nice third-place finish in the G1 Toorak last out. G1-placed Triple Elegance (Mossman) faced muchtougher last out—but has never run counter-clock wise; this could be aninteresting outing. Ginga Dude(Istidaad) shorts up after finishing third last out in the listed CranbourneCup, and he won a race at this distance over this course recently. Lightly-racedSilver Grecian finished sixth (butonly 3.5 lengths back) in his last effort, the G1 Rupert Clarke. Last year, He’s Remarkable (Pentire) narrowly lostto Cox Plate favorite Jimmy Choux in the NZ-G1 2000 Guineas; after a 5-monthbreak, he’s come back this campaign with two straight wins in New Zealand—notcertain he’s up to this class. Wily veteran Danleigh (Mujahid) won the G1 Chipping Norton back in March, buthasn’t had much success since and carrying topweight might be too much.
UPDATE: Bit of a shocker with 4-1 Testa My Patience winning over game 40-1 Hawks Bay. Post-time favorite He's Remarkable (3-1) finished third, and 11-1 Happy Trails was fourth. Very disappointing race by some of the more seasoned horses.
G1 Cox Plate (2040m) Race 8Disappointed to hear that Descarado (High Chaparral) is out of Saturday’s Cox Plate, I’m evenmore conflicted about whom to root for here. Darley’s 3-year-old Helmet (Exceed and Excel) with his hugeweight allowance will take lots of money, although he’s never run beyond onemile (Uncle Mo comparisons abound); by a champion sprinter, stamina is found inhis damline, through Singspiel and Mill Reef. If Manawanui performs well in theAAMI Vase, I’ll take him seriously. On his achievements already, New Zealandinvader Jimmy Choux (Thorn Park)certainly rates consideration regardless of track condition. He has formagainst Lion Tamer (Storming Home),but that one threw a clunker last out. RekindledInterest (Redoute’s Choice) boasts two victories in three starts over thistrack, including the G2 Dato'tan Chin Nam Stakes in September. All that said,it’s the mares to which I’m looking for value: King’s Rose (Redoute’s Choice), Avienus (Reset), PinkerPinker (Reset) and Secret Admirer(Dubawi). All four come in off G1 tries: SecretAdmirer and Pinker Pinkerfinished 1-2 in the G1 Epsom, King’sRose ran a narrow second in the G1 Toorak, and Avienus just missed against Descarado in the G1 Caulfield Stakes.Avienus is actually the only horse to return from last year’s Cox Plate, whereshe finished sixth of 10 with Craig Williams aboard—I much prefer her recentefforts with Brad Rawiller aboard. If pressed, I’d probably have to say Secret Admirer appeals to me most (eventhough she’s never run counter-clockwise); her unraced dam is a half-sister to2600m G1 winner Donegal Mist, who also won the G2 Moonee Valley Cup here over2600m. Interestingly for Americans too, SecretAdmirer is cross-bred 3 x 3 to Seeking the Gold.
UPDATE: So much for taking my own address about not playing based on emotion. I've always had tremendous success betting Pinker Pinker so I bet her across the board just in case...and she won, at 25-1! Wow! Helmet's distance limitations kicked in as he faded, and Jimmy Choux finished second, with Rekindled Interest third and 35-1 longshot Wall Street in fourth.
G3 Inglis Mile (1600m) Race 9Finally, if you make it this far, More Strawberries (More Than Ready) returns off a disappointingeffort in the G1 Epsom, as does Raspberries(Lonhro)—talk about a fruity hunch quinella! For my money, So Pristine(Zabeel) looks to be rounding into form at exactly the right time, althoughtopweight—and last year’s winner—LadyLynette (Ladoni) can’t be ignored.